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Bainbridge Island, WA Real Estate News

Last Thursday (Feb. 10)  the National Association of Realtors (NAR) came through with the encouraging report that sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums in Q4 of 2010 increased over Q3 in 49 out of 50 states -- a 15.4% rise for the three-month period. However, sales were down 4.78% for the year, to an estimated 4.91 million, from their 5.16 million level the year before. Fueled by the homebuyer tax credit, that higher 2009 sales rate was deemed "unsustainable" in 2010 by the NAR. Home prices, on the other hand, appear to be stabilizing. The NAR revealed that the national median existing single-family home price in Q4 of 2010 stayed essentially flat versus Q4 a year ago, coming in at $170,600. Here's a good sign that prices are beginning to climb off the bottom: median pr...
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By Paul Pival, A Realtor with the soul of a professor.
(Coldwell Banker Bain)
Annual Transaction Report for 2010 Here are last year's statistics for Bainbridge Island. This is a correction to the February 15 post, which contained corrupted data. My apologies. 2010 saw an increase of nineteen percent in closed transactions compared to the previous year. On average, transactions closed a month sooner in 2010 than in 2009. The average sale price dropped four percent. Sellers accepted thirteen percent less than their original listing price.   Bainbridge Island continues to be a buyers' market. As of February 15, there are 161 single family homes in inventory.     Average list price is $850,000, but there are homes in every price bracket. Half the homes on the market are below the median list price of $640,000.   If you'd like the selling details of the home that clo...
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By Brenda Prowse
(Prowse and Company)
Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for a January median price of $450,000, about 19% lower than in December and 19% lower than a year ago. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price fell about 2% from last month to $504,292 and is 2% lower than a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is about the same as it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average for Bainbridge Island's number of closed sales is 10% lower than a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 18% Countywide from a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of Bainbridge pending sales in January was unchanged from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (163) rose 4.5% from December and is about 2% lower than a year ago.  The...
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Fed Chairman Bernanke spoke before the National Press Club last week and certainly left the impression that the Funds Rate will stay at its rock bottom level for a decent while longer. This week's economic reports shouldn't inspire the Fed to hike the Rate any time soon. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same. Current Fed Funds Rate: 0% - 0.25% After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Mar 15 0%-0.25% Apr 27 0%-0.25% Jun 22 0%-0.25% Probability of change from current policy: After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Mar 15      <1% Apr 27      <1% Jun 22      2%
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Here are the planned economic announcements this week (all times are Eastern) Wed. Feb 9 - 10:30 am: Crude Inventories for 2/5/11 - Consensus N/A (Impact: Moderate) Thur. Feb. 10 -8:30 am: Initial Unemployment Claims for 2/5 - Consensus 413K/Prior 415K (Impact: Moderate) Thur. Feb 10 - 8:30 am: Continuing Unemployment Claims for 1/29 - Consensus 3.90M/Prior 3.925M (Impact: Moderate) Fri. Feb 11 - 8:30 am: Trade Balance for Dec - Concensus is -$40.7B/Prior -$38.3B (Impact: Moderate) Fri. Feb 11 - 9:55 am: Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for Feb - Concensus is 75.5/Prior 74.2 (Impact: Moderate) From my weekly email for REALTORS, "Inside Lending" - Feb. 7, 2011
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It looks to be A QUIET WEEK, in terms of planned economic announcements. We'll have the usual weekly and continuing jobless claims, and no one is expecting huge drops in these numbers just yet. Optimistic observers expect serious declines in claims in another month or so. We'll also see the December Trade Balance showing imports growing versus exports, although U.S. companies' export revenues are still strong, a good thing. Finally, consumer confidence in the economy is forecast to be growing, at least the way the February Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index sees it on Friday. From my weekly email for REALTORS, "Inside Lending" - Feb. 7, 2011
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For the week, the Dow ended UP 2.3%, at 12,092; the S&P 500 was UP 2.7%, to 1,311; and the Nasdaq shot UP 3.1%, ending at 2,769. While stocks soared higher, bonds got hammered. Even the Egyptian unrest couldn't ignite a flight to safety, as investors wanting to catch the rising wave of stock prices took their money out of bonds. The FNMA 4.0% bond we watch ended down 187 basis points for the week, closing at $97.22. In spite of this drop, news of an improving economy and low inflation kept mortgage rates at historically low levels. Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgages reported average fixed-rate mortgage rates pretty much unchanged (but watch for higher rates early this week). From my weekly email for REALTORS, "Inside Lending" - Feb. 7, 2011
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Investors also liked the economic data (seeing the glass more than half full). Q4 productivity was up 2.6%, proving that, yes, we ARE working harder. But we're also being compensated for that extra effort, as personal income rose in December along with personal spending, which helps fire up the economy. But things aren't overheating yet, since Core PCE Prices, the inflation number the Fed watches, was up just 0.7% the past year. ISM Manufacturing and Services indexes both showed strong economic growth. The January Employment Report showed a gain of just 36,000 jobs, but this was put to the unusually bad weather preventing people from working -- several hundred thousand more than usual. Private sector payrolls were up 50,000, their 11th monthly gain in a row, which helped drop the unempl...
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Last week saw strong corporate earnings, more indications the economy is healing, and Ben Bernanke telling the National Press Club the Fed won't be withdrawing its policy support anytime soon. The net result? The Dow shot up five days in a row, crossing the 12,000 threshold and staying there, trading near its highest levels since the middle of 2008. All three major indexes delivered impressive gains, with the S&P 500 enjoying its best January since 1997. Investors shrugged off worries the Egyptian protests might further de-stabilize the whole Mideast. Corporate earnings are running way ahead of expectations and, even more encouraging, future earnings estimates are up. The week's star performers included mammoth Exxon Mobil, drug biggie Pfizer, and video gamer Electronic Arts. The vast m...
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New home sales are forecast to come back more briskly, up 17.7% in 2011, following their 15.5% drop in 2010. The 2012 projection is for a strong 51.1% sales gain, to 565,000 homes. The median price for new homes, which gained 2.2% last year, should go up another 1.8% in 2011, to $224,700, then 1.9% in 2012, to $229,000. The NAR's chief economist says this rebound in home sales does depend on an improvement in the jobs market. Affordability also matters and in Q4 of 2010 housing was the most affordable on record, according to NAR numbers going back to 1971. The NAR feels the current situation of low home prices along with low interest rates should continue. From my weekly email for REALTORS, "Inside Lending" - Feb. 7, 2011
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There's good news in the latest housing market forecast for 2011 from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). After dipping 4.8% last year, sales of existing homes are predicted to grow 7.9%  this year, to 5.3 million. The gain for 2012 is forecast to be a little less, up 4.5%, to 5.53 million. The existing home median price went up 0.3% in 2010, a nice recovery from the 12.9% price drop of 2009. For 2011, the NAR sees it rising 0.5%, to $173,000, then another 2.4%, to $177,900, in 2012. From my weekly email for REALTORS, "Inside Lending" - Feb. 7, 2011
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All of Bainbridge Island is still considered "rural" by USDA and home loan funds are now available for 2011. That means buyers may qualify for the last 100% conventional home financing program for local home buyers, available from Sterling Savings Bank here on Bainbridge. Very few lenders offer this program, but Sterling is one of the leading USDA lenders in the state. With local home prices at current levels, USDA has become a more viable loan option for more buyers. The USDA Guaranteed Rural Housing Loan Program often can help those who can't come up with even the 3.5% down payment required with an FHA loan, and it features: -30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage (current rates are as low as 5% as of 2/4/11) -No Down Payment (LTV up to 103.5% with financing the 3.5% one-time Guarantee Fee) -No ...
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By Paul Pival, A Realtor with the soul of a professor.
(Coldwell Banker Bain)
 Closed Transactions Month of January   Please note: we are comparing closings during this year's January and last year's January.   Closings were down slightly this January.   Transactions closed two weeks faster.  The average selling price was less by 13 percent.      Sellers accepted 14% less than they originally asked.    Inventory on Bainbridge is dropping. It is still a buyer's market, but as inventory shrinks we can expect the advantage to go to those sellers who price their homes according to market.   If you would like details of the home that closed in your neighborhood, call or email me.      
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One of the most requested flyers I produce for Realtors and customers is a chart that  uses the datea from Freddie Mac's weekly interest rate survey, which comes out on each Thursday. It shows the annual average since 1990 and then breaks down the quarterly average for 2010. The 4th Quarter of 2010 hit the lowest level ever since Freddie Mac began tracking weekly mortgage interest rate averages. As the link to the PDF of the chart shows, we hit 4.41%, down from 4.44% for the 3rd Quarter of 2010.  This is a great chart to show the incredible decline of mortgage interest rates year-by-year since 1990. And if your buyers are still sitting on the fence waiting for rates to drop, remind them that the 20 year average for mortgage interest rates is 7.20% and we are currently 34% BELOW that ave...
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Experts tell us a marketing plan is key to sustaining the success of a business over the long term. But most small businesses see such a plan as a "nice-to-have" instead of as the crucial document it is. It's good to look at the state of your enterprise every year, so why not kick off 2011 by putting together a solid marketing plan. It's not that difficult. Just base it on a clear understanding of your customers and competitors by asking yourself four questions.1. Why would a potential customer use my business? Don't just think about what you offer. Ask yourself what's the core customer need your offering meets. Then ask why or how your offering meets customer needs better than the competition.2. Who are my target customers? Look at your potential customers and figure out which ones are...
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Forbes is listing their predictions of the top 10 markets that will rise and fall in 2011. Check out this article on MSNBC.com to see what Forbes is predicting: Where home prices will rise, fall the most in '11 If I can ever help you or your customer with financing or questions about financing, please contact me. 
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Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months The Fed's statement coming out of last week's meeting continued to tout their view that the Funds Rate needs to stay at its rock bottom level until the recovery picks up considerably. This week's economic reports shouldn't inspire the Fed to hike the Rate any time soon. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same. Current Fed Funds Rate: 0-0.25% After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Mar 15 0-0.25% Apr 27 0-0.25% Jun 22 0-0.25% Probability of change from current policy: After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Mar 15 <1% Apr 27 <1% Jun 22 <1%
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The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of controlling inflation and supporting job growth. What happens with the Fed Funds Rate depends on what's going on in those two areas, which bracket this week's economic news. Monday, we get the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, Core PCE Prices, expected to stay well under control. Friday's January Employment Report is forecast to add 150,000 jobs, which is all to the good, but not enough to prevent the unemployment rate from edging up a tad as the workforce grows. Other key economic indicators include Monday's Chicago PMI take on Midwest manufacturing, Tuesday's ISM manufacturing index and Thursday's ISM services index. All are expected to continue to show expansion, with readings over 50. From my "Inside Lending Newsletter" for Jan. 31, 2011
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For the week ending Jan. 28, 2010, the Dow ended down 0.4%, at 11824; the S&P 500 was off 0.5%, to 1276; but the Nasdaq dropped just 0.1%, ending at 2687. Bonds prices were helped by some well-received auctions Wednesday and Thursday, followed by the flight to safety on Friday, courtesy of falling stocks. The FNMA 4.0% bond we watch ended UP 78 basis points for the week, closing at $99.09. This bodes well for mortgage rates, although Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgages reported average fixed-rate mortgage rates inching up slightly, thanks to the strengthening economy. Still, mortgage rates do remain at super low levels. From my "Inside Lending Newsletter" for Jan. 31, 2011
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Monday, Jan. 31, 2011 -- RECAP: Just as we were all set to celebrate an eight-week winning streak for the stock market, Friday treated us to the biggest one-day drop in months, with the Dow falling 166 points on fears over Egyptian unrest. As oil prices rose, investors seeking safety sold off their equity positions, but losses were modest in the end. All three major indexes were down for the week by half a percent or less. The economic data keeps offering encouragement, but Wall Street always first looks to corporate earnings to gauge how we're doing. Last week saw 14 Dow components reporting Q4 numbers and 11 of them did better than expected. Some missed their revenue targets and issued lukewarm guidance going forward. But overall, the corporate earnings picture continues to show a pre...
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