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Bainbridge Island, WA Real Estate News

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) predicts rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages could rise a bit in the second half of this year. They see this gradual rise in mortgage rates continuing, even if the Federal Funds rate does not increase for another six to 12 months, as many economists expect. That's because both the Treasury Department and the Fed announced last month they would start selling their huge portfolios of mortgage-backed securities. Some analysts believe these moves will raise rates. Bottom line: now is a good time to buy with rates dropping a bit today (Monday, April 18, 2011) From my weekly enewsletter for real estate pros, INSIDE LENDING, for the week of April 18, 2011.
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Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months...Last week's benign inflation readings mean the Fed can hold onto its rock bottom rates a while longer. Economists expect this to be the situation in the near term. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same. Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%-0.25% After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Apr 27 0%-0.25% Jun 22 0%-0.25% Aug 9 0%-0.25% Probability of change from current policy: After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Apr 27      <1% Jun 22      <1% Aug 9      2%  From my weekly enewsletter for real estate pros, INSIDE LENDING, for the week of April 18, 2011.
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Economic Calendar for the Week of April 18 - April 22  Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact TuApr 19 08:30 Housing Starts Mar 520K 479K Moderate TuApr 19 08:30 Building Permits Mar 538K 517K Moderate WApr 20 10:00 Existing Home Sales Mar 5.00M 4.88M Moderate WApr 20 10:30 Crude Inventories 4/16 NA 1.627M Moderate ThApr 21 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 4/16 390K 412K Moderate ThApr 21 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 4/16 3.650M 3.680M Moderate ThApr 21 10:00 Leading Economic Indicators Index (LEI) Mar 0.2% 0.8% Moderate ThApr 21 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Index Apr 32.9 43.4 HIGH  From my weekly enewsletter for real estate pros, INSIDE LENDING, for the week of April 18, 2011.
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Optimists received some encouragement from data aggregator CoreLogic, who reported that home prices fell again in February, but the price drops appeared mostly with distressed sales--short sales and bank-owned homes, otherwise known as REO properties. Excluding these, the CoreLogic index was essentially flat, down just 0.1% versus a year ago. Their Chief Economist commented, "When you remove distressed properties from the equation, we're seeing a significantly reduced pace of depreciation and greater stability in many markets." During the month, 6 out of 10 of the country's biggest markets saw home price APPRECIATION in non-distressed sales. From my weekly enewsletter for real estate pros, INSIDE LENDING, for the week of April 18, 2011.
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By Brenda Prowse
(Prowse and Company)
Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for a March median price of $501,500, about 1% less than in February and 4% lower than a year ago. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price fell 4% from last month to $485,708 and is 16% lower than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is about the same as it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average for Bainbridge Island's number of closed sales is 12% higher than a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 12% Countywide from a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of Bainbridge pending sales in March was down 7% from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (166) rose 4% from February and is about 14% lower than a year ago.  The inventory turn...
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DID YOU KNOW?...The Commerce Department reported the average price of a new home sold in December was the highest it's been since July 2008--$291,400. From my weekly e-newsletter for real estate professionals, INSIDE LENDING, April 11, 2011
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Avoid the hard sell--a soft sell approach is actually far more effective. Satisfy your customers' needs and wants. Discover their pain points and be their problem solver. Do what really is best for your customer and see your reputation and business grow. From my weekly e-newsletter for real estate professionals, INSIDE LENDING, April 11, 2011
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Review of Last Week... Our representatives in Washington waited until the last minute to agree on budget cuts and avoid the first Federal government shutdown in 15 years. The media had a field day, but investors largely ignored it, understanding that the last thing any government wants to do is put a stop to its own operations. But there was enough other bothersome news--rising gold and oil prices, a declining dollar and a rate hike by the European Central Bank--to leave the Dow flat and the other two major stock indexes off a tick for the week.But the ISM Non-Manufacturing index, which dipped slightly in March, still shows the services sector above 50 and growing. In fact, this index has been in that territory now for 16 straight months! It was also encouraging that initial weekly jobl...
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 Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months...Friday, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said the Fed is close to the point at which it has to start reversing its "accommodative" monetary policy (i.e., raise the Funds rate). But economists still don't expect that until much later in the year. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same. Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%-0.25% After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Apr 27 0%-0.25% Jun 22 0%-0.25% Aug 9 0%-0.25% Probability of change from current policy: After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Apr 27      <1% Jun 22      <1% Aug 9      4% From my weekly e-newsletter for real estate professionals, INSIDE LENDING, April 11, 2011
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HOW MUCH ARE WE BUYING, WHAT ARE WE PAYING AND HOW'S BUSINESS?... Wednesday's March Retail Sales are expected to show we consumers continue to buy more. We're also paying more, as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecast up a tad. But Core CPI is what the Fed focuses on, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Some economists think food and energy hikes are exactly why the Fed should begin raising rates. Wholesale inflation is also moving up, measured by the Producer Price Index (PPI), and some experts say businesses will eventually pass these higher prices on to the consumer. Yet Michigan Consumer Sentiment is predicted to remain fairly positive.How business is doing will be reflected in the Trade Balance, expected to show a $45 billion export-import gap, and the Empire State...
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Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.  Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact TuApr 12 08:30 Trade Balance Feb -$45.7B -$46.3B Moderate WApr 13 08:30 Retail Sales Mar 0.5% 1.0% HIGH WApr 13 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Mar 0.8% 0.7% HIGH WApr 13 10:00 Business Inventories Feb 0.8% 0.9% Moderate WApr 13 10:30 Crude Inventories 4/9 NA 1.952M Moderate ThApr 14 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 4/9 385K 382K Moderate ThApr 14 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 3/26 3.700M 3.723M Moderate ThApr 14 08:30 Producer Price Index (PPI) Mar 1.0% 1.6% Moderate ThApr 14 08:30 Core PPI Mar 0.2% 0.2% Moderate FApr 15 08:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) Mar 0.5% 0.5% HIGH FAp...
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Those of us who think we can participate in a housing market recovery sooner rather than later just got welcome support from some industry experts. As reported by Fortune on CNNMoney.com, "After four years of plunging home prices, the most attractive asset class in America is housing." Research firm Metrostudy, which tracks new-home inventories for 65% of the U.S. market, reports that the steep drop in construction over the last few years has reversed the supply glut, with starts now well below closings. The firm believes the low inventory should eventually lead to higher prices.The Fortune posting also cited a new study from a major bank that found homeowners now pay only 9.8% of their income in after-tax mortgage, tax and insurance payments, down from 17.2% at the 2007 peak. This mean...
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By Paul Pival, A Realtor with the soul of a professor.
(Coldwell Banker Bain)
  First Quarter 2011 The first quarter of 2011 saw a healthy increase of 12% compared to the first quarter of 2010. Transactions closed more quickly (37 days). The average selling price dropped 18%. Sellers accepted 17% less than they had originally asked. If you are a buyer, now is the time. If you are a seller, be patient. If you'd like the selling details of the home that closed in your neighborhood, send me an email. I'll be happy to send them to you.            
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More economists are talking about the need for the Fed to tighten monetary policy by edging rates up. But few expect a hike in the funds rate until well into the second half, or even next year. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same. Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%-0.25% After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Apr 27 0%-0.25% Jun 22 0%-0.25% Aug 9 0%-0.25% Probability of change from current policy: After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Apr 27      <1% Jun 22      <1% Aug 9      4%   From my weekly INSIDE LENDING enewsletter for real estate professionals, April 4, 2011
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Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates. It's a ligt week for news:Economic Calendar for the Week of April 4 - April 8  Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact TuApr 5 10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Mar 59.5 59.7 Moderate TuApr 5 14:00 FOMC Minutes 3/15 NA NA HIGH WApr 6 10:30 Crude Inventories 4/2 NA 2.945M Moderate ThApr 7 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 4/2 388K 388K Moderate ThApr 7 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 3/26 3.700M 3.714M Moderate  From my weekly INSIDE LENDING enewsletter for real estate professionals, April 4, 2011
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ISM reports come from the Institute for Supply Management. Last week's ISM Manufacturing is considered by many economists to be the most reliable near-term economic barometer for that sector. This week's ISM Non-Manufacturing provides insight into the Services sector, representing over 80% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Speaking of ISM... Tuesday's ISM Non-Manufacturing index for March is expected to hold steady, reflecting the slow pace of the economic recovery. But the reading above 50 puts services solidly in expansion mode, which is key, since 85% of our jobs are in this sector of the economy. From my weekly INSIDE LENDING enewsletter for real estate professionals, April 4, 2011
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The bond market last week was hurt by the renewed interest in stocks and the better than anticipated jobs report. The FNMA 4.0% bond we watch was off .02 for the week, closing at $98.10. National average rates for conforming mortgages edged up a bit according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey, but they're still at historically low levels. Mortgage rates for a 30 Year Fixed Rate loan can still be found under 5.00%....   From my weekly INSIDE LENDING enewsletter for real estate professionals, April 4, 2011
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It was a good week for investors who were encouraged by positive economic news, capped on Friday with a surprisingly upbeat March Employment Report. All three major stock market indexes were up again for the week, which began with signs the consumer's purchasing power is growing. For February, Personal Income and Personal Spending were both UP, while inflation, as measured by Core PCE Prices, was up only 0.2% for the month and 0.9% since last year. This is well within the Fed's target range.The highlight of the week was the aforementioned March Employment Report. Nonfarm payrolls were UP 216,000, with the private sector contributing 230,000 jobs, well above expectations. Best of all, job growth was broadly based, with strong gains in several business sectors. The unemployment rate dropp...
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Patience has certainly been needed to weather the ups and downs of the current U.S. housing market. But as we await strong recovery, we can take heart in positive signs when they show up. Last week we had the report that Pending Home Sales were up 2.1% in February. This measure of contracts on existing homes indicates sales should rebound in March following February's drop.Other tidbits of goodness included the news that the share of homebuyers for second homes held steady in 2010 versus the year before. But this report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) did show overall sales volume somewhat declining. Meanwhile, the reverse of that is occurring on the luxury end of the market, where sales of homes priced at $1 million and above were up 3.9% in February versus a year ago.T...
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By Paul Pival, A Realtor with the soul of a professor.
(Coldwell Banker Bain)
 Closed Transactions Month of March   Please note: we are comparing closings during this year's March and last year's March.   14% more homes closed in March this year.   Transactions closed 35 days faster.  The average selling price dropped 19 percent.      Sellers accepted 11% less than they originally asked. There are 167 homes in inventory at all price ranges (the highest listing is $4.1M).  Average listing  price is $831,643) , with half the inventory under $650,000.  These figures include two homes over $1.1M.   If you would like details of the home that closed in your neighborhood, call or email me.    
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