Fed-Induced Recession In 2023 NY Fed's Recession Probability Model shrieking warnings of an incoming downturn, odds at 38% have analysts saying it's really a near-100% chance DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas said: “It is clearly saying high short term interest rates are going to cause a recession in the next 12 months. Moreover, these odds are very likely to increase.”  Colas referenced the model’s 60 year track record, showing nine times out of 11, a probability reading over 30% was able to accurately predict a downturn. The model measures the difference between yields on the 3-month and 10-year Treasury – similar to the 2-10 Treasury curve, a bellwether of a recession when the curve is inverted. Analysts deem the 3-10 Treasury curve a “more accurate” predictor, as does Fed Chair Jerome Powel... 12/07/2022

 [ This is the neighborhood in Washington, DC.  Everyone wants live here, or to come here to eat and enjoy the city.Logan Circle is the quintessential NW DC neighborhood.  It simply looks and feels right, without the attitude one finds with the usually older & more established NW neighborhoods.Penn Quarter, closer to downtown/ Penn. Ave., has the nightlife, clubs and Capital One Arena.Shaw is the place to be and the neighborhood has a great feel of new & old woven together.  This time of year we typically see a lull in the housing market.  And just like last month, we saw identical numbers sold vs. the previous month, for a total of 42 homes sold in October 2022. This month we are below the 5 year average of 59. We should start to see numbers increasing again. Are we seeing the repercus... 11/28/2022

Capitol Hill is also a neighborhood in Washington, a big village, split halfway across, half in the NE and half in the SE quadrant of Washington, DC.  Politicians work here, but people live here also.On the north side, an iconic landmark is Union Station, with some 40 million people annually, shown here to represent the local perspective. This is a true transportation hub, with Amtrak, suburban rail, intercity  bus and the Metro(subway) stations to converge. As of 2019, 2nd busiest station in the country.As of February 2016, the H Street Trolley now gets people from (almost) Union Station to past the 15th St Starburst.This view shows the station as you drive up in a cab, or Bikeshare or walk from Capitol Hill on left.  If you were there today, you'd see no cabs, and no people inside (or... 11/28/2022

Capitol Hill is not only a political idea, it is also a big village, a neighborhood split halfway across, half in the NE and half in the SE quadrant of Washington, DC.  Politicians work here, but people live here also.On the south side of this neighborhood is Barracks Row, and the ever growing and popular Navy Yard with the Nationals Park neighborhood.  Let's consider that we will return to some level of foot traffic here in the summer of 2022, even if not 2019 levels yet.The Navy Yard has very good Metro access, and is also home to baseball's Nationals Park. This neighborhood has also become the 'it' neighborhood, growing faster than any other in the past year.  All the residential growth has fueled demand for lots of new neighborhood amenities, which brings more people.  It certainly ... 11/28/2022

This quote is getting older, but even more relevant in 2022. Councilmember Charles Allen was quoted in the Washington City Paper (8/21/2O15) saying "Southwest is an absolutely incredible neighborhood.  It's a neighborhood that has so many things: Metro stations, water access, parks & greenspaces, small and big residential buildings.  A lot of people just didn't realize it was there".Audi Field, home of DC United Soccer, as well as PNHoffman's The Wharf will ensure a lot more people find this neighborhood.This view shows the opening day, which was a good day, albeit with opening issues. DC United has upped it's game this season with a few team additions, surely to benefit a stronger team.   A total of 14 homes were sold in October 2022, a few less again from the previous month and below ... 11/28/2022

DC Assumable Mortgages: Seller Advantage? If you're a home seller in the District of Columbia with an assumable mortgage, you're probably asking the question; Is it a big advantage in the current market?With a decade of historically low mortgage interest rates, low inventory and stiff competition, FHA | VA represent a much smaller portion of mortgages in the District of Columbia.Then rates shot up this year.So now, borrowers are rediscovering assumable mortgages and reassessing their relevance in the DC real estate market.What's An Assumable Mortgage?It's one that can be transferred from the current mortgagee to a qualified buyer, reassigning the terms agreed upon when the loan was first originated.​ How Does That Work?In simple terms, the seller checks their loan contract and confirms ... 11/26/2022

If you're shopping for DC real estate in the current market and dismissed the idea of discounted mortgage loans, maybe think again. 🤔Programs like the 5/1 ARM can offer rates a full percentage point or more below 30 year fixed rates, lowering your monthly payments while increasing your purchasing power. And that addresses two major challenges for DC home buyers right now: soaring mortgage interest rates, and tougher loan restrictions.We tell you the why's and how's here:https://realestateinthedistrict.com/dont-waive-your-arms/For a quick take, listen to our audio clip  11/07/2022

Well you're not alone! 😆 There’s more than a little confusion surrounding the national real estate market right now, and here in DC things aren’t much different. Sellers wonder how they went from pre-market bidding wars to double digit days on market, buyers are shell-shocked by rapid-fire rate hikes, investors are holding back, hoping for more price improvement, and real estate agents? Just trying to hold it all together while we help clients navigate a transitioning market.Here's our take this first week of November 2022.  Read the full post at realestateinthedistrict.com 11/06/2022

 [ This is the neighborhood in Washington, DC.  Everyone wants live here, or to come here to eat and enjoy the city.Logan Circle is the quintessential NW DC neighborhood.  It simply looks and feels right, without the attitude one finds with the usually older & more established NW neighborhoods.Penn Quarter, closer to downtown/ Penn. Ave., has the nightlife, clubs and Capital One Arena.Shaw is the place to be and the neighborhood has a great feel of new & old woven together.  This time of year we typically see a lull in the housing market .  And once again, there are fewer homes than the previous month, with a total of 42 homes sold in September 2022. This month we are nearly at the 5 year average of 49. It's possible these numbers would be higher if  the increasing interest rates weren'... 10/30/2022

Capitol Hill is also a neighborhood in Washington, a big village, split halfway across, half in the NE and half in the SE quadrant of Washington, DC.  Politicians work here, but people live here also.On the north side, an iconic landmark is Union Station, with some 40 million people annually, shown here to represent the local perspective. This is a true transportation hub, with Amtrak, suburban rail, intercity  bus and the Metro(subway) stations to converge. As of 2019, 2nd busiest station in the country.As of February 2016, the H Street Trolley now gets people from (almost) Union Station to past the 15th St Starburst.This view shows the station as you drive up in a cab, or Bikeshare or walk from Capitol Hill on left.  If you were there today, you'd see no cabs, and no people inside (or... 10/30/2022

Capitol Hill is not only a political idea, it is also a big village, a neighborhood split halfway across, half in the NE and half in the SE quadrant of Washington, DC.  Politicians work here, but people live here also.On the south side of this neighborhood is Barracks Row, and the ever growing and popular Navy Yard with the Nationals Park neighborhood.  Let's consider that we will return to some level of foot traffic here in the summer of 2022, even if not 2019 levels yet.The Navy Yard has very good Metro access, and is also home to baseball's Nationals Park. This neighborhood has also become the 'it' neighborhood, growing faster than any other in the past year.  All the residential growth has fueled demand for lots of new neighborhood amenities, which brings more people.  It certainly ... 10/30/2022

This quote is getting older, but even more relevant in 2022. Councilmember Charles Allen was quoted in the Washington City Paper (8/21/2O15) saying "Southwest is an absolutely incredible neighborhood.  It's a neighborhood that has so many things: Metro stations, water access, parks & greenspaces, small and big residential buildings.  A lot of people just didn't realize it was there".Audi Field, home of DC United Soccer, as well as PNHoffman's The Wharf will ensure a lot more people find this neighborhood.This view shows the opening day, which was a good day, albeit with opening issues. DC United has upped it's game this season with a few team additions, surely to benefit a stronger team.   A total of 16 homes were sold in September 2022, a drop from the previous month and almost at the ... 10/30/2022

 [ This is the neighborhood in Washington, DC.  Everyone wants live here, or to come here to eat and enjoy the city.Logan Circle is the quintessential NW DC neighborhood.  It simply looks and feels right, without the attitude one finds with the usually older & more established NW neighborhoods.Penn Quarter, closer to downtown/ Penn. Ave., has the nightlife, clubs and Capital One Arena.Shaw is the place to be and the neighborhood has a great feel of new & old woven together.  Again, a few less homes from the previous month, with a total of 54 homes sold in August 2022. Are the increasing interest rates squelching this red hot market?  Time will tell. We quite a bit below the 5 year average of 70,  we will watch to see if this will continue with interest rates climbing.  We can't predict ... 09/27/2022

Capitol Hill is also a neighborhood in Washington, a big village, split halfway across, half in the NE and half in the SE quadrant of Washington, DC.  Politicians work here, but people live here also.On the north side, an iconic landmark is Union Station, with some 40 million people annually, shown here to represent the local perspective. This is a true transportation hub, with Amtrak, suburban rail, intercity  bus and the Metro(subway) stations to converge. As of 2019, 2nd busiest station in the country.As of February 2016, the H Street Trolley now gets people from (almost) Union Station to past the 15th St Starburst.This view shows the station as you drive up in a cab, or Bikeshare or walk from Capitol Hill on left.  If you were there today, you'd see no cabs, and no people inside (or... 09/27/2022

Capitol Hill is not only a political idea, it is also a big village, a neighborhood split halfway across, half in the NE and half in the SE quadrant of Washington, DC.  Politicians work here, but people live here also.On the south side of this neighborhood is Barracks Row, and the ever growing and popular Navy Yard with the Nationals Park neighborhood.  Let's consider that we will return to some level of foot traffic here in the summer of 2021, even if not 2019 levels yet.The Navy Yard has very good Metro access, and is also home to baseball's Nationals Park. This neighborhood has also become the 'it' neighborhood, growing faster than any other in the past year.  All the residential growth has fueled demand for lots of new neighborhood amenities, which brings more people.  It certainly ... 09/27/2022

This quote is getting older, but even more relevant in 2021. Councilmember Charles Allen was quoted in the Washington City Paper (8/21/2015) saying "Southwest is an absolutely incredible neighborhood.  It's a neighborhood that has so many things: Metro stations, water access, parks & greenspaces, small and big residential buildings.  A lot of people just didn't realize it was there".Audi Field, home of DC United Soccer, as well as PNHoffman's The Wharf will ensure a lot more people find this neighborhood.This view shows the opening day, which was a good day, albeit with opening issues. DC United has upped it's game this season with a few team additions, surely to benefit a stronger team.   A total of 26 homes were sold in August 2022, once again, identical to the previous month and a fe... 09/27/2022

This past weekend Phyllis and I attending a wedding in Washington DC.  It was the one of the friends of my daughter who had grown up in Armonk.  Daryn had gone to college in Washington DC and stayed there afterward.  She was marrying Dmitry, an urban planner who was from Russia.  Our daughter was not able to attend with a two year old and a new born.The hotel was The Moxy by Marriott,a concept for millennials with very small rooms and hip surroundings.  Clearly, we and two other couples were really out of place here.  I took a picture of our room but won't show it here. The wedding was at President Lincoln's cottage where Lincoln spent summer nights during his presidency and where he wrote the Emancipation Proclamation.And one of Ashley's friends snapped a picture of us to send to her. ... 09/06/2022

 [ This is the neighborhood in Washington, DC.  Everyone wants live here, or to come here to eat and enjoy the city.Logan Circle is the quintessential NW DC neighborhood.  It simply looks and feels right, without the attitude one finds with the usually older & more established NW neighborhoods.Penn Quarter, closer to downtown/ Penn. Ave., has the nightlife, clubs and Capital One Arena.Shaw is the place to be and the neighborhood has a great feel of new & old woven together.  Again, a few less homes from the previous month, with a total of 63 homes sold in July 2022. Is the market contracting?  Time will tell. We have now dropped below the 5 year average of 74,  we will watch to see if this will continue with interest rates climbing.  We'll continue to watch numbers as we move into early... 09/01/2022

Capitol Hill is also a neighborhood in Washington, a big village, split halfway across, half in the NE and half in the SE quadrant of Washington, DC.  Politicians work here, but people live here also.On the north side, an iconic landmark is Union Station, with some 40 million people annually, shown here to represent the local perspective. This is a true transportation hub, with Amtrak, suburban rail, intercity  bus and the Metro(subway) stations to converge. As of 2019, 2nd busiest station in the country.As of February 2016, the H Street Trolley now gets people from (almost) Union Station to past the 15th St Starburst.This view shows the station as you drive up in a cab, or Bikeshare or walk from Capitol Hill on left.  If you were there today, you'd see no cabs, and no people inside (or... 09/01/2022

Capitol Hill is not only a political idea, it is also a big village, a neighborhood split halfway across, half in the NE and half in the SE quadrant of Washington, DC.  Politicians work here, but people live here also.On the south side of this neighborhood is Barracks Row, and the ever growing and popular Navy Yard with the Nationals Park neighborhood.  Let's consider that we will return to some level of foot traffic here in the summer of 2021, even if not 2019 levels yet.The Navy Yard has very good Metro access, and is also home to baseball's Nationals Park. This neighborhood has also become the 'it' neighborhood, growing faster than any other in the past year.  All the residential growth has fueled demand for lots of new neighborhood amenities, which brings more people.  It certainly ... 09/01/2022