Well, I do agree that now is a better time to buy than waiting for the rates to decrease (by Q2) because that will cause a new buying trend of competition and cost.

But, I respectfully disagree with the length of the 18 year real estate cycles you post and that they are unpredictable. The cycles and their effects are much more frequent (about every decade) and fairly predictable Richie Alan Naggar, because they respond to our economic cycles and history reveals the pattern.

(I did see the Google stats you seem to be quoting) but I disagree with them too - I'm weighing in with my 4 decades of market experience. Every decade we have inflation, recession, booms and an unexpected anomalies like war, pandemic, market crash, etc.

With the help and guidance of industry leaders familiar with our cycles and trends, I've managed to time many of my purchases to within 30 days of being perfect times to sell or buy (2008, 2021 to name a couple) and I've made 2 purchases that I should have maybe waited a little longer for the market's further decline before buying, but the opportunity of those properties outweighed the wait for "perfect timing".

Buy low, sell high is a great investment strategy, Richie. 

The cycles of all life ... cycle on. 

I agree with Thomas J. Nelson, REALTOR ® e-Pro CRS RCS-D Vets - the cycles are shorter than 16-18 years. 

Confused slightly by your question.  Too many terms to digest.  One bottom line is that folks will always have a need for shelter.  Families out grow their homes.  People need to down size.  life goes on despite interest rates, etc. etc.  Happy New Years.  

You gotta know when to hold 'em, and know when to fold 'em.

We have done pretty well with this awareness.

We have to deal with the current challenges regardless of the projected cycles. Those of us who have been around for a long time have experienced very high mortgage interest rates, floods, fires, ice damages and poor leadership decisions at every level of government. Let's be ready for the unexpected as well as the projected in the new year.

I think the cycles may change over time.  I seem to recall them being 20 years or so growing up, but now it seems the cycle is much shorter.  Seems like we've had two booms full of "good times" agents and unsustainable business practices within the last 15-20 years.

Between what's happened to Purple Bricks and what's happening to Zillow, Redfin, Compass and others, I'd say we're in store for another 2008 reckoning soon.  Especially with the recent attacks against property ownership and real estate in general in the name of the so-called "housing crisis."  Probably not long before they try to Federalize it, which will really hurt the industry and the Citizens of this great nation.

Robert Shiller's thoughts
He is one half of the brains behind the Case Shiller Index . . .

I think the same about weather.  There are warming and cooling cycles.  Humans have so very little to do with it.

I agree with the Buy Low -- Sell High -- however, it's all about timing, choices, and the ability to recognize when it's right for you. Cycles and Circles ... two very relative terms in real estate huh?  Happy New Year Richie Alan Naggar 

Mans actions create the cycles! The time to buy is when you need to buy.The time to sell is when you need to sell. The state of the economy is beyond your control and you must adapt.

I know I've been through 4 cycles in my 18½  years in the business so, I think the cycles run more frequently than 18 years. 

As to the time to buy - absolutely NOW is definitely THE time to buy!