William Piotrowski, Just Call William 630-881-8655 (Diamond Residential Mortgage Corporation )

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Liz and Bill Spear
RE/MAX Alliance 513.520.5305 www.LizTour.com - Mason, OH
RE/MAX Alliance Cincinnati & Dayton suburbs

 

 

For those questioning the data, the above charts are sourced from St. Louis Fed.
It would appear that median days on market for US has been above 45 days prior to March 2021.
30 year fixed mortgage rates have been above 4.0 as recently as May 2019 since we're looking prior to the recent spike.

I'm skeptical that 91% of all agents have been licensed 3 years or less. 
In my own office, only 3 of the 18 agents are licensed later than 2019. 
A local brokerage that tends to have more agents just starting out has 7 out of 34 that started 2019 or later.

I don't have any reason to think Cincinnati agent stats are widely out of touch with the rest of the country.

 

Oct 04, 2022 10:50 AM
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Kathleen Daniels, Probate & Trust Specialist
KD Realty - 408.972.1822 - San Jose, CA
Probate Real Estate

Where oh where did you get those stats?

In any event, I do believe we will see many agents looking for a JOB!

Oct 04, 2022 10:13 AM
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Lyn Sims
Schaumburg, IL
Real Estate Agent Retired

Don't believe it, no references to your claim.

Oct 04, 2022 09:31 AM
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Wanda Kubat-Nerdin - Wanda Can!
Red Rock Real Estate Brokered by Real - St. George, UT
St. George Utah Area Residential Sales Agent

Not sure about 91% but every cycle, especially when losing momentum by trending down, sends agents off to find other ways to gain an income.

Oct 04, 2022 08:00 AM
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Doug Dawes
Keller Williams Realty Evolution - Topsfield, MA - Georgetown, MA
Your Personal Realtor®

There will be a great shaking out

Oct 04, 2022 07:31 AM
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Anna Banana Kruchten Phoenix Broker
HomeSmart Real Estate BR030809000 - Phoenix, AZ
602-380-4886

Flash back to 1987.  We thought it was a good deal to buy homes under 10% and some agents made it, some did not.  I've seen agents come and go for many years and for many reasons.  When those agents that don't 'make it' leave it's because they most likely did not treat it as a real business that needed to be built up. The 'ole it's easy money' theory doesn't hold up. The rest of us did hold up in any market condition because we built a sustainable business.  I think your stated number is  high....but who knows, I don't keep track of that stat.

Oct 04, 2022 09:09 AM
Rainmaker
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Candice A. Donofrio
Next Wave RE Investments LLC Bullhead City AZ Commercial RE Broker - Fort Mohave, AZ
928-201-4BHC (4242) call/text

Google Search for "91% of Agents have never SOLD Real Estate when the Interest Rates are over 4% and days on the Market were over 45 days

A long list, NONE of which include '91%' a figure that seems high.

Do I believe that a huge number of agents today have never known 7% interest rates? ABSOLUTELY. The last 2 booms had < 5% interest rates and < 45 DOM.

A friend who sells lots of homes is panicking that their 'perfectly market ready' 'only listing active in the subdv' 'lots of showings' has not sold in 90 days . . . I am not kidding when I say "Mercury RX" but it is definitely an anomaly given the recent market! 

Which is correcting . . . and many agents will be back to Walmart doing hair or cocktailing at Loser's Lounge (a real bar at the Riverside Resort) LOL

Oct 04, 2022 07:10 AM
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Roy Kelley
Retired - Gaithersburg, MD

What do you have to support the 91% figure? 

Oct 04, 2022 10:52 AM
Rainmaker
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Jason E. Gordon
AmeriFirst Financial Inc, San Diego, CA - San Diego, CA
Sr Loan Officer, CMA, CMPS, CDLP, CDRE, RCSD, CDPE

Although 87.24% of all statistics are fabricated (I made up that number, haha), I do believe there will be a strong shakeup in both the real estate & mortgage industries. It appears inevitable that the majority of industry professionals will need to have a "side hustle" to make ends meet financially.

Oct 04, 2022 08:07 AM
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Emily Medvec
eXp Realty LLC - Santa Fe, NM
Broker | Realtor | Serving Santa Fe & Northern NM

William, I agree that many agents are in new territory with DOM and rates substantially over 4%. So are Sellers and Buyers. And many Buyers have left the market not by choice. As for agents, I hear retirement chatter, getting a "job" talk BUT time will tell when MLS dues come due.

Oct 04, 2022 07:31 AM
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Karen Climer
Demetree School of Real Estate - Orlando, FL
Teaching people to pass the real estate exam
I think the 91% will do the same thing that the other 9% have done - they will learn to adjust to the new market. There are agents that sold when the MLS was a paper book. When the MLS when digital, did they leave the market? There are agents who used to transfer contracts via hand delivery or fax, when email and electronic signatures came out, did they leave the market? This idea that new people can't adjust is not proven and unnecessarily alarmist. Our industry, like many others, has changed over time. The people who work in the industry do the same thing as the rest of the world - they adjust. Heck, there are buyers who have never seen interest over 4%. Sellers who have never seen days on market more than 45 days. Are they going to not buy or not sell? I doubt it.
Oct 04, 2022 07:03 AM
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Caroline Gerardo
Licensed in 20 states - Newport Beach, CA
C. G. Barbeau the Loan Lady nmls 324982

Got short sale contacts and tools rocking, check.

Got broom, shovel, and how to lists printed up, check.

Data lists and walking shoes in my car.

 

Oct 04, 2022 09:22 AM
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Greg Large
ERA Real Solutions - Grove City, OH
A Tradition of Trust

knowing that historically speaking that 80 percent of new agents are out of the business within 2 years and has been a steady statistic since I have been licensed over 40 years ago, and seeing the increased number of agents the last couple of years, I would not be surprised to see a slightly greater percentage than 80 percent the next couple of years. How hard can it be? Harder than most people can imagine.

Oct 04, 2022 08:45 AM
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Debe Maxwell, CRS
www.iCharlotteHomes.com | The Maxwell House Group | RE/MAX Executive | (704) 491-3310 - Charlotte, NC
The right Charlotte REALTOR!

"Tough times never last, but tough people do." - Robert Schuller

Oct 05, 2022 06:28 AM
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Bob "RealMan" Timm
Ward County Notary Services - Minot, ND
Owner of Ward Co Notary Services retired RE Broker

And why is this surprising William? Without doing any research it's probably been 10 years since rates have been this high and few agents last this long. As far as agents leaving the market a huge share flush out their 1st year.

Oct 04, 2022 02:03 PM
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John Meussner
Mortgages in AZ, CA, CO, DE, FL, GA, MD, MN, MT, NC, NJ, NV, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WI - Fair Oaks, CA
#MortgageMadeEasy Fair Oaks, CA 484-680-4852

I don't believe that statistic, as DOM has been over 45 days in recent history and rates were also above 4% in recent history.  

 

The industry will see some attrition, but with 401ks shrinking and recession pending, I actually see a lot of older agents with plans to continue working when they were considering retirement a year ago.  

 

Some attrition would be great for the real estate and lending industries, we almost saw a wave of attrition 2018-2019 with rates spiking and inventory dwindled (sound familiar?) but rate dips bailed everyone out.  I actually expect a repeat of this with the Fed driving us into recession and rates coming down again.

Oct 04, 2022 01:08 PM
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Richie Alan Naggar
people first...then business Ran Right Realty - Riverside, CA
agent & author

bye bye, so long & farewell as you find what works and what doesn't for you

Oct 04, 2022 12:15 PM
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Don Baker
Lane Realty - Eatonton, GA
Lake Sinclair Specialist

Well I'd say it's closer to 40% in my market that fit into that category.  Where did you get the data?

Oct 04, 2022 10:15 AM
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Joan Cox
House to Home, Inc. - Denver Real Estate - 720-231-6373 - Denver, CO
Denver Real Estate - Selling One Home at a Time

In any market, no matter what the interest rate or days on market, there will be agents that don't make it.  there is always a revolving door of agents getting into the business and leaving.

Oct 05, 2022 06:16 AM
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Jeff Pearl
RE/MAX Distinctive / LIC in VA - Lovettsville, VA
Full Service Full Time Realtor

Around here, there are such a variety of homes, Days on Market is just something to look at, but many times means nothing. Many new agents drop out in first year or two for reasons that have nothing to do with how much money they made, or how many days a property was on the market.

Oct 04, 2022 01:46 PM
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Ryan Huggins - Thousand Oaks, CA
https://HugginsHomes.com - Thousand Oaks, CA
Residential Real Estate and Investment Properties

Figured as much.  Agent ranks swell when the going is easy and collapse when it is not.  Seen it several times before.  Same thing with companies.  Many form, "disruptors" emerge and many fail just like they're doing now.  Inman, Bloomberg, the WSJ and several others have commented about companies of late that are on life support and others that have already closed down.

Oct 04, 2022 11:07 AM
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Gary Frimann, CRS, GRI, SRES
Eagle Ridge Realty / Signature Homes & Estates - Gilroy, CA
REALTOR and Broker

I'm curious as to where that statistic came from, but I also think there will be a great shaking out of agents as rates rise.  I understand it is already happening in the loan industry.

Oct 06, 2022 08:22 AM
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Brian England
Arizona Focus Realty - Gilbert, AZ
MBA, GRI, REALTOR® Real Estate in East Valley AZ

Many agents leaving the market is a good thing in my opinion.  Aggressive markets get flooded with bad agents and it is not fun having to deal with them.

Oct 05, 2022 04:52 AM
Rainmaker
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Wayne Martin
Wayne M Martin - Chicago, IL
Real Estate Broker - Retired

Surprising number. I have been in real estate when rates were approaching 20% and people were still buying and selling. The strong will survive and the weak will perish!

Oct 05, 2022 03:38 AM
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John Juarez
The Medford Real Estate Team - Fremont, CA
ePRO, SRES, GRI, PMN

When we go through a market such as the market we are now transitioning out of, the general public thinks that being a real estate agent is easy peasy and agent numbers swell. Going into and working in the market as it is now becoming, agents must work for a living, prove their work and numbers will decline because of the may who will not be able to meet the challenge.

Oct 04, 2022 11:19 PM
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Carol Williams
Although I'm retired, I love sharing my knowledge and learning from other real estate industry professionals. - Wenatchee, WA
Retired Agent / Broker / Property Manager

I would like to know the source of that statistic.  It doesn't ring true with me.

Edit: I tracked down the source of the quote to Nick Bailey CEO/President of Re/Max, but I haven't found where he gets his data from.

Oct 05, 2022 06:00 AM
Rainmaker
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Scott Godzyk
Godzyk Real Estate Services - Manchester, NH
One of the Manchester NH's area Leading Agents

It is a crazy thought, however just reading the advice people post online is head scratching and it shows. AT one time 7% was considered a good rate. Rates bounced up to 18% a while back in my early days. 

 

Oct 05, 2022 05:46 AM
Rainmaker
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Peter Mohylsky
PMI. Destin - Miramar Beach, FL

We are in for an adjustment, shakeup, rebalancing and only time will tell how significant the change will go. 

Oct 05, 2022 05:37 AM
Rainmaker
797,768
Brenda Mayette
Miranda Real Estate Group, Inc. - Glenville, NY
Getting results w/ knowledge & know-how!

While that number may be high, we will most definitely see agents leave this business... And many of them should! Buh Bye now!! 

Oct 05, 2022 04:58 AM
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Adam Feinberg
Elegran - Manhattan, NY
NYC Condo, Co-op, and Townhouse Advisor

This sounds a bit high...but believe that it's likely enough to give a reasonable idea of the general trend. That said- it's not always relevant. I spent 16 years on Wall Street prior to becoming a real estate agent, and I was well accustomed to the up's and down's before entering the business. 

Oct 05, 2022 05:11 PM
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Tammy Lankford,
Lane Realty Eatonton, GA Lake Sinclair, Milledgeville, 706-485-9668 - Eatonton, GA
Broker GA Lake Sinclair/Eatonton/Milledgeville

Not a chance is that accurate.  It's only been two years in GA since we had an average of 45 days on the market and our agents active average 14 years in the business.

Oct 05, 2022 02:10 PM
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Bob Crane
Woodland Management Service / Woodland Real Estate, KW Diversified - Stevens Point, WI
Forestland Experts! 715-204-9671

For a decent agent this wont make much of a difference.

Those agents who will leave the business, they probably weren't doing much business anyway.

Oct 05, 2022 07:18 AM
Rainmaker
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Tony Lewis
Summit Real Estate Group - Valencia, CA
Summit Real Estate Group Valencia & Aliso Viejo

I haven't heard that and it doesn't make much sense since the top performers have been around for a decade or more and they do 80% of the business.

Oct 05, 2022 07:24 PM
Rainmaker
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Olga Simoncelli
Veritas Prime, LLC dba Veritas Prime Real Estate - New Fairfield, CT
CONSULTANT, Real Estate Services & Risk Management

I am sure there are some that have not, but 91% doesn't sound like a realistic number.

Oct 05, 2022 02:22 PM
Rainmaker
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Diana Dahlberg
1 Month Realty - Pleasant Prairie, WI
Real Estate in Kenosha, WI since 1994 262-308-3563

There will definitely be a shaking in the real estate market and with that will come those who are not willing to work that hard.  But for those of us who have stayed true to our profession through good and bad, we will continue and as they newbies leave -- it just makes more room for us to thrive! IMHO

Oct 05, 2022 11:54 AM
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Alan May
Jameson Sotheby's International Realty - Evanston, IL
A moving experience!

It don't surprise me in the least.  Let's shake that tree.

Oct 05, 2022 08:57 AM
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Shayne Stone
HomeSmart - Fulshear, TX
"Your Rock Solid Choice Realtor"

And I should care about this, why?

 

 

Oct 05, 2022 07:45 AM
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Inna Ivchenko
Barcode Properties - Encino, CA
Realtor® • GRI • HAFA • PSC Calabasas CA

That is interesting, but I'd like to know the source of that information. 

Oct 07, 2022 09:59 PM
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Carla Freund
Keller Williams Preferred Realty - Raleigh, NC
Carolina Life RealEstate & Relocation 919-602-8489

I didn’t hear that but it isn’t surprising.

Oct 06, 2022 11:47 AM
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Nancy Bergman
Pearson and Associates Real Estate Team - Sandy, UT
Communication is Key - 858-617-9449

I agree. I am seeing it with my agents. They don't know how to operate with rates in the 5-6-7%. Agents think the sky is falling... 

Once again, the serious agent will survive and the newer agents will have to find other sources of income. 

Nancy Bergman

Pearson and Associates Real Estate Team / Realty Path 

Salt Lake City

Oct 10, 2022 06:20 PM