Richie Alan Naggar 

An agent who attempts to predict future market conditions and pricing strikes me as hubristic.   Exactly where in our training did we learn prediction analysis?  

The best we can hope to convey, based solely on facts, is to show the market trajectory of a local or national market, but that's based on past sales.     I may suggest to a client that trends, evidenced by trajectory, tend to stay the course, at least short term, but can still turn on a dime.

In this regard,  Lyn Sims has a point in her first sentence, provided it comes with a caveat:    I think we can only make predictions based on our market for only a few future months. 

I go by the numbers and facts. I  know the pulse of the market now, in the future and trends to watch for.  Of course I put it out there when asked or the subject comes up.

Oh boy, you are SO right, Richie! 

If the talking heads can make predictions, we certainly can. I often wonder if the talking heads even use data when making their predictions!

I truly believe that with our level of expertise, we OWE the consumer our educated predictions. 

I share the data and how the market is trending.  

My clients make their buying and selling decisions on their own based on their needs and affordability.  

Use facts as to the current trends, subject to change without notification and due to circumstances beyond our control.

I have nothing against giving my "two cents" as it were on the topic.  I think I did so earlier today here talking about interest rates and what might happen.  I think we should have the same legal disclaimers that the stock brokers have, or at least wrap everything in a "based on my experience, this is what I think will happen, but it may not" type of CYA wording like below.

"These are just my guesses on what I think will happen.  People should do their own research and make their own minds up before investing as all investments have risk and past performance is no guarantee of return."

I think we can only make predictions based on our market for only a few future months. There are no immediate changes really in real estate. I've seen in the past when interest rates go up - buyers could care less & there wasn't any urgency on their part.

I always tell anyone that asks. Sometimes people just want to ask & argue.

We share the reports on market conditions and leave the speculation to the purchasers and sellers.

"It depends, are looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest?"

Richie,

I consult my medium Madame Zonga, she knows all, sees all and has eyes everywhere.  I can discuss trends and facts...how many economist do you know that were right...A

Listings will remain in short supply from 12/2021 until 9/2022.

We no longer see 30 people making offers on one house. 

Single family prices will hold in coastal markets east and west coast. Idaho and Nevada I exclude on the hold and expect a slip in values by 3%.  Condominium market in Florida to decline 3% as more buildings are become "unwarrantable" 

Pent up buyers who want to purchase will settle for lower priced homes and farther from job as long as there is internet service. Work from home and variety of one day in office meetings will last into 2023, thus driving rural community price increases to 2023. City agents need to buddy with the ones on the ranch.

Mortgage interest rates to rise in three steps to 3.5 APR as the norm base pricing by June 2022. Rates to adjust down to 3.25 around Halloween of 2022. (Base rate with no adds for FICO, cash out, property type... ) Mortgage market for small under $100,000 loans is going to see aid from US Government and also relaxing of FHFA's board to the back of the head adds for investment 1-4 loans. Pricing for 5-25 will improve also for multi family in 2022

More push of private equity money from FinTech companies taking away service that is face to face. Those who survive will offer teaching, training, video, local services from toenail to rooftop, and employ digital tools to speed up processes. Remember how docusign changed your process? More new shoe phones are on the production line, embrace them, test them.  

A certain percentage of humans will still want belly up face to face help. Be visible where those people who want that full love and hugs can find you. Deliver what they want the way they want it.  For me that means: phone/text/pdf/video/email/kitchen table/ on the roof of the car.

Real estate will continue to be fun, it will always change, we need each other more than before, and let's get you some listings because that's the best advertising you have ladies and gentlemen. 

When asked about the market by a member of the general public I always answer with the following, "That's an interesting question. Why do you ask?"  Motivation matters in the answer.

What will happen, is housing will continue to boom based on simple supply/demand metrics.  Apartment housing, rezoning, multiunits will satisfy SOME demand, but the logistics of building are so tough right now, we're going to see a glut of demand with no supply to meet it.

Demographic data supports demand subsiding some, but with the extreme housing shortage we currently have, not enough to hurt values.  2022 should be a great year for appreciation, and with increased rates and those demographic pressures, value should slow down in terms of appreciation beyond that.  But nothing I see points toward depreciation any time in the near future.  Plus, reckless monetary policy is likely going to drive us into a recession, which is historically a good time for housing, and would drive rates lower again, likely triggering another frenzy to buy and refi

I give solid answers, not predictions, because I do my homework. The answers come with caveats. Been mostly right since 2006, but then again, so have my sources. 💡 There are trends and history repeats itself, so predictions are not needed.

I generally stick to "the current trend" in the market.  Market reports are great.  But I don't know when something is going to happen or how much of a swing it will be.  For years we all heard about the "shadow inventory" of foreclosures and I saw many agents predicting a flood of new homes on the market that NEVER happened.  It comes with too much risk to predict future.  It pays to keep your eye on where the ball is and express what you KNOW, not what you think.

Yes, as a professional you should know the trends in your own market and be aware of the national economic environment as well as the global "mood", which could relate to everything. If you have a good grasp of the above, you should be able to formulate an intelligent response, which may or may not prove true.