Kevin Hawkins's (kevinhawkins) Blog

It was a volatile week in stocks, with only the Nasdaq index up, while both the Dow and the S&P 500 were off. The up-and-down stock prices mimicked Wall Street's responses to the economic situation. The week started on an up note, as Greek debt problems (which could impact U.S. banks) seemed clos...

 In last week's presser, Fed Chairman Bernanke explained that keeping the Funds Rate where it is for an "extended period" means at least two or three meetings. Economists are taking him at his word. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the sam...

 Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact MJun 27 08:30 Personal Income May 0.3% 0.4% Moderate MJun 27 08:30 Personal Spending May 0.1% 0.4% HIGH MJun 27 08:30 PCE Prices - Core May 0.2% 0.2% HIGH TuJun 28 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jun 60.3 60.8 Moderate WJun 29 10:00 Pending Home Sales...

What more could you want? Tuesday's Existing Home Sales and Thursday's New Home Sales will show us if May's closings pushed the annual sales rate up or down. Unfortunately, down is forecast, although surprises are always possible. Wednesday we get the Fed's pronouncement on the Funds Rate and the...

What was gaining on us last week were May Housing Starts, up 3.5% for the month to a higher-than-expected 560,000 unit annual rate. The gain included a 29% increase in multi-family starts, which are now up 17.5% over a year ago. New building permits were also up in May, by 8.7%, to a 612,000 annu...

After six down weeks, the Dow and the S&P 500 stock indexes finally showed weekly gains, although the S&P was up a mere half point. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was still off a tick for the week, dragged down by the makers of BlackBerry, whose stock dropped mightily on earnings that fell well short of S...

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... Given Fed Chairman Bernanke's continued pronouncements, economists do not expect a hike in the Funds Rate any time soon. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same. Current Fed ...

Economic Calendar for the Week of June 20 - June 24  Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact TuJun 21 10:00 Existing Home Sales May 4.78M 5.05M Moderate WJun 22 10:30 Crude Inventories 6/18 NA -3.406M Moderate WJun 22 14:15 FOMC Rate Decision 6/22 0%-0.25% 0%-0.25% HIGH ThJun 23 08:30 I...

There are those who think the housing market is in bad shape, with the start of a second dip in home prices. Then there are those who see something better -- a bumpy bottoming of home prices, which will soon head back up. Those of us in the second camp were given more ammunition last week by real...

UNDER TWELVE THOUSAND... That's not just a price range for used cars, it's also where the Dow landed last week. Not surprising, as we've now had six down weeks in the stock market, matching the six weeks there's been a negative mood on Wall Street. That mood of course has come from signs of a slo...